• ArbitraryValue@sh.itjust.works
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    4 months ago

    With billions of dollars potentially at stake and Trump currently at 60% to win the election, I’d be trying to get on these guys’ good side too.

    • Hegar@fedia.io
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      4 months ago

      Zuck has had staunch republican assets on the board and at the highest levels of the company for ages. They’ve boosted fascist content and pushed outright lies on behalf of trump for almost 10 years now.

      FB doesn’t need to get on the good side of the far right, they’re already on the same side.

    • mosiacmango@lemm.ee
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      4 months ago

      60% of what? No poll puts him at that level.

      You the guy who thinks betting websites decide elections?

        • mosiacmango@lemm.ee
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          4 months ago

          So yes, you think gamblers decide elections.

          I think I asked you this last time you brought this up and you didn’t reply. What were Biden’s odds of winning in 2020 on these same websites at 3 months out?

          • ArbitraryValue@sh.itjust.works
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            4 months ago

            Obviously gamblers don’t decide elections but they do a pretty good job predicting election outcomes.

            I don’t think I’m the same guy you had that discussion with (or if I am, I have no memory of it). Anyway, Polymarket (which I trust more) appears to have no history for resolved markets (as far as I can tell) and PredictIt (which is currently more optimistic about Harris than Polymarket) only shows 9/20/20 at the earliest (at which time it was Biden 57, Trump 46, Harris 4). I’m not sure what you’re getting at with this question.

            Note: Yes, PredictIt didn’t add up to 100%. In theory that means you could have made money off of it risk-free but in practice it has a lot of overhead which prevents it from being an efficient market.

    • EnderWiggin@lemmy.world
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      4 months ago

      at 60% to win the election

      LOL what? There is barely any polling out on Harris v. Trump, and the one’s that have circulated are a dead heat at +/-2 in either direction. I’m personally waiting on Nate Silver’s first real forecast tomorrow.

      • ArbitraryValue@sh.itjust.works
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        4 months ago

        His odds are about the same as Polymarket’s.

        (Sorry Nate, I know this is paywalled but winning an argument is more important than your livelihood.)

        • Todd Bonzalez@lemm.ee
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          4 months ago

          I think you’re confused, Nate Silver is famously one of the worst political analysts, and is openly ridiculed for saying stupid shit like you are while making bad calls. Not surprising that you didn’t understand that “as reliable as Nate Silver” was an insult.

          Wherever you get your polling data from doesn’t matter because polls don’t actually matter. You’re just a wonk who thinks getting polling data from illegal gambling operations makes you special.

        • EnderWiggin@lemmy.world
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          3 months ago

          Hey fair enough. That’s pretty shocking. Looks like I’m throwing some money down on this one. I think these odds are insane, and I’ll gladly take them.

          Edit: So far that money is looking well spent. As expected, the odds have completely flipped.

          • ArbitraryValue@sh.itjust.works
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            3 months ago

            I think the original predictions were accurate given the information available at the time, but Harris has been unexpectedly successful. I am pleasant surprised.

    • Todd Bonzalez@lemm.ee
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      4 months ago

      In case you were wondering what kind of person in Nazi Germany turned in their Jewish neighbors to the Gestapo, it’s this guy right here.

      There’s no functional difference between “I will support the Nazis if they win” and “I am a Nazi”. Both are an equal threat, and both deserve the same historical solution for beating Nazis.