“Specifically, if action in line with 2°C or 1.5°C pathways were to start in 2024, then global emissions would need to be reduced by an average of 4 and 7.5 per cent every year until 2035, respectively. If enhanced action … is delayed until 2030, then the required annual emission reductions rise to an average of 8 per cent and 15 per cent to limit warming to 2°C or 1.5°C, respectively.”[7]

No matter what you think of those numbers, the fact is that none of that is going to happen. Greenhouse gas emissions are going up, not down, and not one G20 government has shown any willingness to even slow down the increase, let alone go into reverse. The United States has withdrawn from the UN climate process, and Trump has cancelled climate change programs. If other big emitters don’t take up the slack, or just fail to carry through on their Paris Agreement commitments, 3°C will be passed, probably sooner then the climate models project.

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