The hype is absolutely insane at the moment with companies burning through billions without any clear path to profitability, and we’ve got startups raising $2 billion seed rounds without even explaining what they’re building. That’s peak dotCom madness right there.

What’s different this time around though is the scale of this thing. We’re talking about $400 billion in AI infrastructure spending this year alone, which is like funding a new Apollo program every 10 months. But the revenue is basically pocket change compared to the spending.

The reality check is already happening though. GPT-5 was a massive disappointment, 95% of corporate AI projects are failing to deliver returns, and nobody has shown a clear path to actual sustained revenue. Meanwhile the big tech companies are using various accounting tricks to hide how much they’re actually spending on this stuff.

The scary part is how much of the US economy is now tied to this AI spending. Data center investments are literally driving GDP growth, which means when this thing pops, it’s going to hurt way beyond just Silicon Valley. It’s an economic house of cards on the promise of intelligence that’s most likely not even possible with current approaches. The technology might be real and transformative long-term, but the market mania is running way ahead of the actual capabilities and business models.

The whole house of cards is propped up by this idea that AI will at some point pay for itself, but the math just doesn’t add up. These companies need to generate something like $2 trillion in AI revenue by 2030 to even break even on all this capex, and right now, they’re nowhere close. OpenAI alone is burning through cash like it’s going out of style, raising billions every few months while losing money hand over fist.

I expect that once it’s finally acknowledged that the US is in a recession, that’s finally going to sober people up and make investors more cautious. The VCs who were happily writing checks based on vibes and potential will start demanding to see actual earnings, and that easy money environment that’s been fuelling this whole boom is going to vanish overnight.

If a few big institutional investors get spooked and start quietly exiting their positions, it could trigger a full blown market panic. At that point, we’ll see a classic death spiral. The companies that have been living on investor faith, with no real path to profitability, are going to run out of cash and hit the wall leading to an extinction level event in the AI ecosystem.

When that all actually starts happening ultimately depends on how long big investors are willing to keep pouring billions into these companies without seeing any return. I can see at least another year before reality starts setting in, and people realize that they’re never getting their money back.

AI will most likely not burst anytime soon. The corporations that are in this bubble are closely connected to the US. Not the government, not any other part of the state. To the state itself. They are in a big bubble now and they also know that. But they control the market in the US and wherever else they want except China and a few other countries where companies that extract behavioral surplus (that is key to AI and many other techological developments they offer) such as Google and Meta are not allowed. IF this bubble bursts, that means either the US is collapsing, or they found something else to replace the behavioral surplus market. This is the only explanation.

They will take damage though if China decides to fight against them. There is no way they compete against the chinese companies. 21st century chinese company is way more efficient than any other company in the west.

Probably next year, Though i don’t study economics so take my opinion with a grain of salt. That’s just what the patterns indicate to me, from a limitred understanding of things from a sociological perspective. I think non-sychophantic people will start to see that ai progress is slowing down not speeding up and the hype will die down in the next year or so.

I think when china releases cheap tensor processing units, nvidia will implode, and with it the whole bubble.

Ask an AI when the bubble will burst 🤪.

🤖: “I am a transformative technology! You can’t think without me anymore! Even if the global economy has a crash causing shockwaves of poverty (which it won’t because I am so inherently good for everyone), I’ll survive like a metaphorical removedroach.”

Not any time soon. If will exist at least for the better part of next year I think.

We can all be well aware that the line is going up due to finance fuckery, including the investors, but that doesn’t matter so long as the line keeps going up. Alan Greenspan warned of the dotcom bubble’s irrational exuberance. If you bought into the bubble on that day, you’d still have come out ahead if you sold at the crash’s lowest low. The investors don’t care that it’s a bubble, they know it’s a bubble. They only care about their net worth going up. If they get 4% from the bonds market and 4.1% from detonating the global economy, you know exactly what their plan is.

Anyways, the real deadline is somewhere in 2027 when the money runs out. You can shuffle paper deals around all you want but at the end of the day someone needs to pay cash for GPUs and data centers, and AI can’t do it. Too expensive, massively negative profit margins. Every real dollar spent is thrown into the money pit and burned. In 2027, there will be no more liquidity left to invest in any sector, anywhere. No bank investments, no private equity, no venture capital. All spent on AI