The Israeli military had advanced notice about a plan by Hamas to raid southern Israel including accurate predictions about the number of hostages the group would seize, a new report has found.

The internal report shared with Gaza Division commanders, entitled ‘Detailed raid training from end to end’, was released on 19 September and found that Hamas fighters had been training for a huge assault on Israel, a warning that was ignored by officers, Israeli broadcaster Kan reported.

Three weeks later, Hamas and its allies launched a series of assaults into southern Israel, killing 1,190 Israelis and taking 251 captives back to Gaza, sparking a brutal Israeli war on the Palestinian enclave that has seen more than 37,000 people killed.

“I feel like crying, yelling and swearing,” one of the authors of the report said about the ignored warnings, according to Kan.

October 7 was almost a mirror of how the report warned an assault would play out, even predicting the number of hostages who would be seized by Hamas at between 200 and 250, while detailing how its fighters from its elite units would assault military posts and towns.

The 7 October events remains a hugely sensitive issue in Israel with demands for commanders and politicians to step down due to the collapse of the southern front on that day.

Israel’s High Court issued an injunction on Sunday to suspend an investigation by State Comptroller Matanyahu Englman into the military and Shin Bet over alleged failings that led to Hamas’s surprise attack on 7 October.

    • Zipitydew@sh.itjust.works
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      5 months ago

      And people should have known Iran was working on ways to help create a distraction for Russia. Hamas had been planning and building up for this attack for a while. They even intentionally chose October 7th which is Putin’s birthday. But I get downvoted all the time as some crazy person for pointing out how easily it was to predict Iran’s proxies were going to act up to help split US attention away from Ukraine.

      • Blackbeard@lemmy.world
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        5 months ago

        In a way they couldn’t have planned it any better. They knew Bibi would go all-in and Biden would have to follow him into the morass.

      • small44@lemmy.world
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        5 months ago

        There’s no reason to care more about ukraine than any other invasion/colonization and other conflicts feom an humanity standpoint

      • ShittyBeatlesFCPres@lemmy.world
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        5 months ago

        It was also the day after the 50th anniversary of the Yom Kippur War. That seems like it’d be more relevant to the parties involved, especially

      • mindlight@lemm.ee
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        5 months ago

        Then we’re two crazies now.

        The ties between Hamas and Iran are well documented. The ties between Russia and Iran are well documented.

        In my opinion the likelihood of this happening on that exact date by accident is next to none.

        • massive_bereavement@fedia.io
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          5 months ago

          The ties between Russia and Hamas are well documented: (from wikipedia cuz I’m lazy)

          During the 2023 Israel–Hamas war, Russia condemned both the initial Hamas attack and Israel’s response. Russia maintained relations with both parties and presented itself as a potential mediator.

          After the 7 October Hamas attack on Israel, which initiated the war, Russia condemned the attack as “terrorism”. Putin sent condolences to the families of the killed Israelis and said Israel had a right to defend itself, describing the Hamas attack as “unprecedented in its cruelty”. He also condemned the subsequent Israeli bombardments of Gaza and called for a two-state solution to resolve the conflict. Russian UN diplomats later condemned both the Hamas attack on Israel and Israeli shelling of civilian neighborhoods in Gaza. However, Russia voted against a resolution condemning Hamas at the United Nations General Assembly.

          Some commentators said that Russia has grown closer to Hamas and more hostile to Israel. According to The New York Times, Russian state media and leading social networking platforms spread support for Hamas and denigrated Israel and its main ally, the U.S. Putin has said that the war shows “a clear example of the failure of U.S. policy in the Middle East”. On 14 October, Hamas thanked Putin for his “position regarding the ongoing Zionist aggression against our people.” On 26 October, Moscow hosted a Hamas political delegation, led by Mousa Abu Marzook, which Israel condemned as “a reprehensible step that gives support to terrorism and legitimacy to the horrific acts of Hamas terrorists.” Amid the war’s hostage crisis, Hamas released kidnapped Russian-Israeli dual nationals. Hamas described these actions as a gesture of appreciation for Russia’s support for the Palestinian cause.

          In December 2023, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that Israel’s stated goals in its invasion of Gaza were similar to Russia’s stated goals in its invasion of Ukraine.

          https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia–Hamas_relations

    • Ænima@lemm.ee
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      5 months ago

      Edit: see comment from @[email protected] below this.

      Throughout history, America has chosen to ignore warnings of impending attacks. Australia notified the US about the Japanese fleet movement and, if I remember, even predicted the target was Hawaii. They did nothing to stop that attack in order up get the US into the war to help Europe when isolationism in the population was making the idea of getting into the war unpalatable.

      • Zipitydew@sh.itjust.works
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        5 months ago

        That take on Pearl Harbor is not historically accurate though. US Naval command had Japanese radio transmissions as well. It was more hubris and incompetence than some secret desire for an excuse to join the war. The US was already preparing for war with Japan. And Japan was crazy enough to skip straight to attacking US Naval command in Hawaii head-on as an opening move. Whereas US command assumed they’d take smaller targets first and try to stretch the fleet across defending many locations.

        Japan ironically was both more and less successful than intended because of US mistakes. US carrier groups were sent west out near Wake Island and the Marshall Islands to cut off the attack that was thought to be coming. But Japan sailed around Midway approaching Hawaii from the North. They even had their planes loop around to fly in from the East to cause extra confusion until it was too late. What they found was less resistance than expected because the carriers weren’t there. It didn’t end up being the kinda suicidal knock out blow Yamamoto was going for.

        Congress demanded multiple investigations over the years after. They all bore out a similar conclusion that US command and intelligence fucked up. They went looking for the fight in the wrong place. Assuming the attack on Hawaii intelligence had to be a ruse.

        • Ænima@lemm.ee
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          5 months ago

          Thanks for setting me straight. I’ll edit my post to reflect that.

          • Zipitydew@sh.itjust.works
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            5 months ago

            All good. It’s a pervasive myth that on the surface seems plausible. There are other examples of what you mentioned that probably were a false flag or manufactured consent. Extending a conspiracy like that to Pearl Harbor takes a lot of credit away from Yamamoto’s strategic genius.

    • sunzu@kbin.run
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      5 months ago

      The movement oct 7 attack happened, fake news start calling it Israel’s 911…

      Knew right then there and they were working up a blank check for genocide and they got it!!!

      Now it is too late…

      • Letstakealook@lemm.ee
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        5 months ago

        If you consider that around 3,000 people were killed on 9/11 and around 5 million were killed by America’s responding “war on terror,” this really was Isreal’s 9/11. Hell, the US put boots in damn near every country in the region except the country that funded, trained (with our help), and planned the attack.

        • sunzu@kbin.run
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          5 months ago

          Hell, the US put boots in damn near every country in the region except the country that funded, trained (with our help), and planned the attack.

          Preach!!!

          • girlfreddy@lemmy.ca
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            5 months ago

            Because oil is (or at least was) more important than justice.

            The Lady bows down to capitalism.

  • oce 🐆@jlai.lu
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    5 months ago

    Wouldn’t they have this kind of prediction every other week due to the intense threat, but this one happened to be true? If that’s the case, it is a bit easy to come after the fact and say that this one should have been considered better than the 20 others.
    European countries, for example, are constantly getting attacked, even if it’s rarely big enough to be noticed in the current times.

    In 2022, 16 terrorist attacks took place in the EU and an additional 12 attacks failed or were foiled. https://www.europol.europa.eu/cms/sites/default/files/documents/European Union Terrorism Situation and Trend report 2023.pdf

    • Linkerbaan@lemmy.worldOP
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      5 months ago

      There appeared to be some pretty intense efforts from within the IDF to take this warning seriously.

      They even tried to cancel the Nova music festival but got overridden by higher ups. And their weapons got taken away.

      And the weirdest is how long it took the helicopters and reinforcements to arrive.

      But as you said it might have been the IDF just been extremely incapable. We have certainly observed as much the past 8 months.