I really sincerely hope the Iran War de-escalates, but whatever happens it is hard to see Iran not coming out of this stronger even as it has payed dearly from this illegal war.

Consider though that the country that loses hardest from the ceasefire is russia since right now russia desperately needs any oil it can sell to be valuable. I mean, it always true that higher prices benefit russia as a seller but in particular in this moment where russian air defenses are crumbling not having a large cash flow is nearly an existential problem for them.

This is the worst possible outcome for russia, especially if the ceasefire holds and oil prices begin to fall as fears of out of control escalation fade.

It must be said however that there is no reason to trust that Trump actually means what he says about agreeing to a ceasefire. There is just simply no convincing evidence for that but as it stands now this is a shift in the balance of power towards Ukraine in a major way.