cross-posted from: https://slrpnk.net/post/22189256
The latest data, for the first quarter of 2025, shows that China’s CO2 emissions have now been stable or falling for more than a year, as shown in the figure below.
However, with emissions remaining just 1% below the recent peak, it remains possible that they could jump once again to a new record high.
Outside of the power sector, emissions increased 3.5%, with the largest rises in the use of coal in the metals and chemicals industries.
Sector-by-sector analysis suggests that, in addition to the power sector, emissions have likely also peaked in the building materials and steel sectors, as well as oil products consumption.
Noone ever believes me when I tell them that at >20% yearly growth, solar alone is going to overtake fossil in a decade
People don’t understand how growth works. And there’s a lot of fossil fuel propaganda (“what are you going to do at night / when there’s no wind”). You can deal with those things using batteries, pumped storage and by shifting load.
Depends on the location and season, but yeah, I can see that.
They probably don’t believe you because most of the time a 20% growth rate doesn’t just stay constant for a decade, allowing for such simplistic extrapolations. There are examples to the contrary. But a 20% growth rate means 750% growth over 10 years and that is a lot.
Of course it will, but its too late. We need it now.