Polls indicate a surge for the right across the continent in next month’s ballots but the centrists are still likely to hold sway in parliament

Far-right gains in next month’s European elections will be hard, if not impossible, to parlay into more power in parliament, experts say, but they could boost nationalist parties in EU capitals – with potentially greater consequences.

Polling suggests far-right and hardline conservative parties could finish first in nine EU states, including Austria, France and the Netherlands, in the polls between 6 and 9 June, and second or third in another nine, including Germany, Spain, Portugal and Sweden.

The predicted rise of the far- right Identity and Democracy (ID) group and the conservative-nationalist European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) has sparked speculation about a “sharp right turn” in the European parliament, potentially jeopardising key EU projects such as the green deal.

ID, which includes Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) in France, Matteo Salvini’s League in Italy, Germany’s Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), Austria’s Freedom party (FPÖ) and Vlaams Belang in Belgium, are on track to be the big winners – from 59 MEPs to perhaps 85.