You are completely misunderstanding the context and the reality of the Ukraine conflict. As you yourself have pointed out in another comment here, Palestine’s struggle is just because it is anti-imperialist and anti-colonialist. The same applies to Russia in the context of the Ukraine conflict.

It’s undeniable Russia escalated the conflict 3 years ago and it wasn’t necessary. Russia absolutely had enough power in Ukraine to meddle and pull strings, hell do some assassinations, sanctions, etc.

This is simply not true. Russia had no such power in Ukraine to fundamentally change the trajectory. You are massively overestimating the ability of Russia to exert that kind of influence. Assassinations would have achieved nothing, in fact they would likely have strengthened the imperialist grip on Ukraine. Moreover, the escalation did not come from Russia, it came from NATO via its Ukrainian proxy army.

By 2022 the Donbass Republics and the ethnic Russian people living there were facing an existential threat. Ukraine had been building up an enormous army with the help of NATO since 2015. Starting in late 2021 they had been amassing forces and preparing to launch an all out assault on the Donbass which would have been a bloodbath for the civilians there. Anyone perceived as having collaborated with the rebels would either have had to flee or would be tortured and brutally murdered in retribution for the years of rebellion. It is clear that this attack was coming as preparatory shelling from the Ukrainian side had already begun just a few weeks prior to Russia launching the SMO. I have explained this in a prior comment on another post where i also provided sources confirming that this occurred in the lead up to the SMO: https://lemmygrad.ml/post/7112898/6016809

The Donbass militia was not going to be able to withstand an all out attack by a Ukrainian army that had been reconstituted, massively expanded and armed to the teeth by NATO. It is enough to look at how the Ukrainians treated the civilians in the Kursk region, where now countless massacres and atrocities are being uncovered to see what would have happened had Russia not intervened. It was imperative that Russia not allow that attack to begin in earnest, as once the Ukrainian forces had lodged themselves into the urban areas of Donetsk and Lugansk - which they would have done quickly had they broken the militia lines as the frontline was extremely close to the city and the Ukrainians were trained in NATO’s blitzkrieg style of war - they would have been impossible to dislodge without the widespread destruction of the cities, as we have seen throughout this conflict.

We saw in Mariupol what happens when Ukrainian units take over a majority Russian city in Ukraine, how they treat civilians, use them as human shields, and how they entrench themselves into every civilian building. Except it would have been worse even than Mariupol, which was surrounded and cut off from supply and reinforcements and thus could be partly preserved intact despite the best efforts of the Azov and other Ukrainian units to ensure maximum destruction of the city. If Russia had reacted only after the invasion by the Ukrainian forces began they could not have surrounded and cut off the incursion into Donetsk as the Donbass was too heavily fortified by Ukraine. We have seen how long it took Russia to break through those defenses.

Liberating Donetsk would have been a grinding affair more akin to Bakhmut in which the entire city would have been ruined and with Donetsk being an order of magnitude larger almost a million civilians would have been killed or displaced. And Russia would still have been portrayed as the aggressor and be blamed for starting a war and for all the destruction.

The goal of the Banderite Nazis was and is ethnic cleansing. They have explicitly said this. See the sources on this that i gave here: https://lemmygrad.ml/post/7263447/6081888 The Ukrainian nationalist project is fundamentally a colonialist one in Eastern Ukraine and the struggle against it is anti-colonialist. And on a broader scale Russia’s SMO is an anti-imperialist and anti-fascist operation, pushing back the expansion of the imperialist NATO by defeating its Ukrainian proxy army and the fascist Kiev regime. Russia’s defeat in this conflict would not accelerate the socialist revolution in Russia any more than the victory of NATO’s jihadi proxies in Syria has done for Syria. Syria and the entire region is now further away from socialism than it has ever been, and imperialism and colonialism have been greatly strengthened there.

I think none of us here disagree with Lenin’s stated position in this text. But you are committing a dogmatic, ultra-left error by reading it as if its application is universal regardless of objective material context. The geopolitical context surrounding the Ukraine conflict and the Western imperialist assault on today’s Russia more broadly is simply not the same as the context in which this text was written. The current context is closer to the one you yourself quoted in your comment about the Palestinian struggle. It is closer to the struggle of the Emir of Afghanistan which Stalin spoke about. A reactionary and capitalist regime but one which in the present context is serving an anti-imperialist and anti-colonialist function.