One should never invest more than one is willing to loose. If he’s willing to lose it all, then there’s no problem. Let him be. In the long term, it’s uncertain whether Bitcoin will stay above the current price. As the ETF expands, Bitcoin usage will decline and it may eventually become a HODL-only asset that is very unprofitable to mine and mined only by the Blackrocks of the world to get their transactions approved. In the mid term, Bitcoin is now a “store of value” asset for the finance industry, meaning it can be fractionally reserved and effectually there will be far more than 21 million BTC once you include paper BTC, so the same sort of inflation tricks that’s done with any digital assets can be done on BTC. That being said, in this cycle, it’s not unreasonable to expect it to go to 100K based on past trends and current hype and the fact that large BTC purchases from slow moving funds like retirement funds have yet to approve BTC purchases. But if most purchases are done OTC, that might not affect the price and paper BTC might absorb BTC’s price increase. So your friend will have to accept that the current price might the the all time high of BTC forever, and it can only go down from here. But, IMO, it won’t go down too quickly or too much in the short term. So I don’t imagine that the downside risk is more than 30%. In sum, I think that in the short term, the upside and downside risk will be 30%, with a higher chance that the 30% upside will happen. Be prepared to intervene at the end of next year when it’s supposed to be the top since that will be the time your friend should collect his 30% gain or accept his 30% loss.
You’re logically correct but people aren’t…at least not in a straight forward way. There are lots of thing that have zero value but are tremendously overvalued because they get value “in other ways” which are downplayed. Take fine art. Some “fine art” is used in influence peddling. For instance, it may be illegal to give a politician 1 billion dollars, but perfectly legal to buy the politician’s back of the envelop scribble as “art” for 1 billion. “Fine art” is also a common way money laundering happens and creating tax writeoffs out of nothing. As for BTC, it would not matter if there was no retail usage. As long as it can be a unit of account that can get shuffled once a month between megabanks, all legit transfers of value can happen on L2s. Banks have been at this for thousands of years. They know how to control, capture and keep the value of any commodity. What counts is trust and BTC, even after the megabank takeover will still be decentalized enough to preserve trust across banks, and if there is an issue, BTC could be swapped with something like wrapped BTC on Solana and the original BTC coins can be burned, leaving BTC as a burnt out relic. Thankfully Monero is currently free of “the system”, but if privacy is ever accepted as necessary by the mass portion of the population, we need to be vigilant.