• 2 Posts
  • 46 Comments
Joined 19 days ago
cake
Cake day: April 27th, 2026

help-circle


  • Unsurprising. Hezbollah was hard carrying Assad’s Syria while the big man was busy playing Candy Crush… now that the Assadists have nowhere else to go Hezbollah is the only option. The rest of Lebanon hates the Assadists for partially occupying Lebanon, Turkey hates them because they were also fighting each other in Syria, the neighboring mostly Sunni northwestern parts of Iraq generally also hate Assadists from Baathist era rivalries out to modern sectarian tensions, Jordan is extremely uninterested in bringing in controversial groups that could upset its relations with neighbors and the group had officially still been at war with Israel since 1967. Not many options left for those without the contacts to get to Assad’s gamer pad in Russia.

    Hezb found the time in its schedule to shell Syria in March and recently Syria uncovered and liquidated some Hezbollah cells in the country that they say were intending to do some sabotage and assassionations. Not really sure why those are on the priority sheets at all while Israel is occupying their home turf.


  • Before WWI the Kurdish people were split between the Ottoman Empire, Persia, and a tiny number in the Russian Empire.

    The Ottomans entered WWI when a faction within it pulled an ill-advised gamer move against Russia that pushed the whole state into the war. Persia under the Qajar dynasty was very weak and informally controlled in large areas by Russia and the British so although they were officially neutral basically nobody else respected that so they were a battleground also. The Entente basically surrounded the Ottomans except for in the European part and they also had powerful naval forces so there were many fronts to the war. The British got a foothold in Iraq and convinced the Arabs to rebel. The Ottomans were losing ground gradually, especially in the south but fortunately for them the Russians fell to pieces so from there they could rest or advance on the northern Persian and Caucasus fronts and got a really good set-up there. However later on the southern fronts in Syria and Iraq were going badly and Bulgaria sued for peace which then put their now-exposed capital in Europe at risk, so the Ottoman government situated there determined the war was unwinnable and signed an unfavorable armistice that had them retreat from their gains, have some areas to be occupied by Europeans while a peace treaty was hammered out and to demobilize the army. Many of the people and army were incensed at this and would keep fighting at small scale. During this time Ataturk put out a communication that said the country’s independence and integrity was in grave danger, that the government was compromised and that delegates from the provinces should hold congresses in the safest areas of Turkey away from outside influence to determine the path forward. These established a burgeoning rival government to the one in the capital which was hemorrhaging legitimacy since it was being pressured by forces stationed right there to be compliant. As part of the new order envisioned in the newly drafted Treaty of Sevres, in addition to the ceding of land and influence to the British and French, there were also to be cessions to Greece, Italy and Armenia as well as a Kurdish autonomy or independence.

    By that point though control of the unoccupied areas had firmly shifted to the Ankara government which did not agree to the terms. It warred with Armenia over their disputed territory and won, then when the Bolsheviks took over Armenia shortly after Turkey series of treaties with them that basically established the current borders and friendly relations (both had similar enemies at the time and wanted some friendly borders which would continue until Stalin fumbled things later). So that border set as Turkish one side, Soviet on the other. There was a small Kurdish population that they would intermittently make an autonomy (“Red Kurdistan”) for when sweet-talking Kurdish groups and then dissolve later, but no intention of independence from the USSR. There had been some earlier instances of Kurds revolting in Armenia and Azerbaijan but that was all squished by the time the Soviets rolled in.

    Turkey continued with wars against the occupying powers and after forcing back a Greek attempt to push for Ankara the French agreed to settle the border (some modication would occur later w.r.t. Hatay state) in exchange for Turkey recognizing Syria as French in a 1921 treaty. There was a small Kurdish population in Syria at the time but more would flee there from turmoil in southeastern Turkey later. That was great as far as the French were concerned and they encouraged that since they figured that would boost the economy and simultaneously weaken the issue of Arab nationalism plaguing them in Syria (the Terrier Plan) but they wanted to control Syria themselves, not to give it to the anyone. Neither did Syria later on though under Assad rule it did allow Kurdish separatist groups aimed at Turkey to use some areas as training grounds safely out of Turkish reach so it would have leverage to make demands on other matters. Way way later on the SDF was able to control a decent chunk of Syria in the chaos of the Syrian civil war but they recently saw much of their majority Arab territories swap over to the new Syrian government and with a really bad situation if it goes to military means again they are integrating now.

    The 1923 Treaty of Lausanne officially canceled the Treaty of Sevres and confirmed the border Turkey had with French Syria but the border with British Iraq was more contentious and was left tbd since both sides wanted the Mosul area (which was expected to be rich in oil). It was referred to the League of Nations which settled in favor of the area belonging to Iraq in 1926. Turkey was miffed but the British agreed to give them a part of the oil revenue and some other sweet rights and benefits so the Turks signed a treaty with them on it. The British did not want an independent Kurdistan because the oil was necessary for their navy and King Faisal of Iraq (a Sunni Arab) wanted to be able to have a higher Sunni population to balance against the many Shia Arabs in his kingdom. The Barzanis especially tried many many many times to get Kurdish state off the ground. Such attempts have been helped out at times by Turkey, Iran, the US etc. whenever they wanted to tweak the British/Iraq and presently they have an autonomous region albeit smaller than it was before the failed independence referendum.

    Anyway in the meantime relations between Turks and Kurds had gone way south. For some background Sunni Kurds had for centuries been favored by the Ottoman governments and granted many traditional rights (albeit eroded in the latest Ottoman modernization campaigns) in exchange for serving as the first line of defense against the Shia leaning Qizilbash Turks who were often aligned with the various Iranian dynasties. After Turkey won back control of Thrace and Istanbul it had ended the monarchy but maintained the role of the former sultan as Caliph. The Caliph went into exile and his cousin was subsequently elected as new Caliph but it was a powerless position. He asked for more money and foreign scholars asked for him to have more power, but aggressive secularist Ataturk (who does not want religious influence entering politics) seized on this potential channel for “foreign influence” as grounds to actually abolish the Caliphate as well and force the Caliph and his family out of the country. He made many secular reforms in an attempt to shift from religious based identity to a Turkish national identity and promoted the Turkish language in line with that nation-state model.

    All of that was quite toxic to Sunni traditionalists, and to ones who were also Kurdish it was viewed as sundering the only link that tied them together so that was an extra twist of the knife. Sheikh Said called all Muslims to rise up but he was only really answered by Kurdish groups (though notably some Kurdish Qizilbash who had previous been a big pain for the Ottomans opposed Sheikh Said). They laid siege to Diyarbakir but ultimately the rebellion was crushed. It was very expensive and worrisome for the Turkish government which commissioned a report on what to do. The Report for Reform in the East made many extreme recommendations on what to do that kicked Turkification into overdrive, established martial law in eastern areas and so on and made life very difficult for Kurds. In my opinion it sowed the seeds of many future problems ex. Dersim massacre. But as of yet despite insurgencies and the like, no Kurdish autonomy or independent state has been allowed from Turkey.

    Qajar Iran was kind of a doormat that everyone stepped on. Much of it was basically occupied by the British and Russians and at times in WWI the Ottomans were making serious incursions. The Ottomans and early Turkey supported a revolt by Simko Shikak in western Iran (who had earlier fought them) who was eventually put down and forced into exile in Iraq by the new Pahlavi dynasty. Later on as described before Kurdish relations had gotten worse and rebellions were becoming a problem in Turkey so Turkey and Iran agreed to delimit the border more strictly which set the modern borders (very similar to older ones excluding ex. loss of Iraq) in 1937. In WWII Iran got invaded by the British and Soviets accompanied by some revolts. At the end of the war the British and the Soviets were supposed to leave but pro Soviet governments were declared in Mahabad (Kurdish) and Tabriz (Azeri). Tribes in the British occupation zone were not interested though and these attempted states collapsed when the Soviets blinked under American pressure and withdrew to leave them to Iran’s mercies. Some support flowed from the USSR and even Saddam’s Iraq to Kurdish groups in Iran (which similarly meddled back in Iraq) with a big revolt after the Iranian Revolution. Of course as you’ll know this didn’t work though some Kurdish insurgent groups exist to this day.

    To make a long story short, the folks altering the maps were generally looking to do so in their own favor. Kurdish independence was mostly something to support somewhere else that you didn’t plan on annexing yourself and that would cause a power you were concerned with to be distracted. These were largely very poor tribal areas so with a poor economy they don’t have much ‘oomph’ so to speak in a prolonged war themselves so they would need support… which is also hard to provide because as they’re landlocked a ways in from the water you need the backing of a neighbor to actually get arms and supplies to them. And all the countries currently with a large Kurdish population - Iran, Iraq, Syria, Turkey - share an incentive to not actually want an independent Kurdish state that would may be ideologically inclined to provide a safe haven for their separatists to retreat to and strike back from. Plus Kurdish people are ideologically divided with constellations of parties with different objectives.



  • Pakistan is not allying with Iran. It is in an emerging block with Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Qatar and Egypt. Since Pakistan and Turkey border Iran they are very sensitive to destabilizing events in Iran that could spill out as massive refugee flows, separatists gaining power on their shared borders, damage to their linked economies and so on. So the block as a whole is advocating to ease tensions. Actually allying Iran would damage their relations with block members, particularly Saudi Arabia which supplies massive amounts of money and cheap oil to Pakistan, to say nothing of the US. All they would get is the military might of a bombed out country that does not border India and that’s a poor trade.

    India on the other hand is in an emerging block with the UAE, Israel, Ethiopia and Greece. Of those Israel is obviously extremely against Iran and the UAE’s relations with Iran have crashed amidst the bombing. The crippling of the UAE’s exports other than what can bypass Hormuz is bad for India since they’d just recently struck a massive gas deal with the UAE. So certainly they will be positioning more aggressively against Iran but I would expect this to be a naval and sea affair and not involve Pakistan. If India ever presses Pakistan too hard they open themselves up for problems with China which does not want India to become too powerful as they have border disputes. China was recently confirmed to have provided Pakistan support in the earlier air fighting.



  • Anything that triggers the reward pathways in your brain has at least some addictive potential and eating is no exception. Not all foods are created equal, either - adding ex. sugar boosts the reward and makes the food more addictive. Now many foods have huge amounts of added sugars for the sake of preserving shelf life and getting recurrent customers, that sort of thing increases the power of the reward. Over time you become habituated to it though so you can’t get quite the same good feeling with the same amount you ate before - you have to eat even more to get there.

    It’s certainly a weaker effect than in drugs, but unlike them EVERYONE has to eat food to survive and over their entire life. There’s a lot of money to be made by enhancing the addictive potential of food so many efforts have been made towards that over time, plus as the obesity rate has risen and people eat more cultural expectations around food on portion size and the like have also been increasing. When I cut weight some years ago after getting overweight and almost at the edge of obesity some of my coworkers were wondering why I was bothering to do so because in their eyes I was a relatively skinny guy, even though I was 197 lbs.


  • Irish Examiner has a few more details.

    Written statements to the coroner’s court from Mr Warnick’s friend Gareth Kirwan said he had last seen him on the afternoon before and that he was “drunk and loud but not out of control”.

    Another man, Andrew Haire who lived in a tent with Mr Scanlon, said there was “a lot of drink and drugs involved”.

    He said both he and Mr Scanlon were chronic alcoholics, and all three men had consumed a lot of alcohol and drugs around the city centre the day before their bodies were found in the water.

    Autopsy results showed Alex Warnick had evidence of five times the legal driving limit for alcohol in his system and “toxic” benzodiazepine levels, as well as evidence of cocaine and methadone use.

    Coroner Clare Keane said those levels were not fatal on their own but would make an individual unsteady on their feet.

    While Mr Scanlon had consumed alcohol just above the drink driving limit and a benzodiazepine above a therapeutic level, there was also evidence of cocaine use.

    Alcohol and benzodiazepines together is a really nasty combination that amplifies the effects of both, making you act much more drunkenly and can cause respiratory depression which can have you stop breathing. Not the best condition to combine with going for a swim.

    I had a relative who died in shallow water in a lake, he was an fisherman for decades but slipped and bumped his head. Unconsciousness and water don’t go well together.







  • Beating prisoners with plastic pipes, forcing women to undress, ripping their hair out by hand and slicing off random patches with scissors while laughing, beating people in a tire, calling the women whores and interrupting praying Sunnis to tell them they deserve to burn, demanding prisoners to shout Assadist slogans, blasting A/C in the cold and cutting it in the heat, rescinding food if they took >3 min to eat, tossing water on prisoners are leaving them soaking wet for hours, not allowing use of the bathroom so women had to relieve themselves in their cells… how could you do all that and think, hm, our regime fell, this is a good time to move to the capital. Her buddies at the beauty salon even said a dude told them all he recognized her from the prison well in advance of her being detained, so she had a flashing red button indicating her past could catch up with her.

    Can’t help but agree with her victim Hiba when she said, “How dare she not flee Damascus?” The stupidity really boggles the mind.