We know this is true because the curve remains inverted, with short-term debt remaining around the FFR, but long-term is below it, when really it should be a bit above and on a slope upward toward the 30 year. Maybe it will eventually sink in. The FOMC started even talking about hiking rates again recently, since inflation failed to cool in recent months.
My general theory is that yes this was true for the Cold War era when there was a “trilateral” system of the USA with arms in Europe (what eventually became the EU) and East Asia (Japan, SK, Taiwan, etc) against the communist bloc. But since the 2000s, right before the GFC the EU was getting to be as big GDP as the USA and turning into a serious competitor and with more viable productive industry. Ever since then, I think US policy has been to harm the EU more and more. The US wants subservient allies, not self-sufficient ones. Alienating EU’s energy ties to Russia has been more damaging to European industry than to Russia thus far. And as far as I can tell US oligarchs mainly care about the Ukraine because of the agricultural potential of that land and the US policy of controlling world food supplies. Supposedly some millions of hectares of Ukrainian land have already ended up owned by various Western companies like Cargill or Bayer (not sure if this has been proven but I’d not be surprised).
That’s what I meant, thanks – elevated omega-6 from farmed products. Remember to proofread your posts kids !
I also think there will be financial crashes, and likely more than one – just as the last leveraged bubbles collapsed in 2008 and 2020. Of course, he is right that this will lead to them adopting an inflationary model to “solve” it, which will result in a worse version of the same dynamic with time. Eventually I think we will get the dreaded hyperinflation if it goes on long enough.
The wild card is that the demographic collapse and energy descent trends will be highly deflationary no matter what government does, but that’s a longer term issue.
Yes, this is a good idea. Farmed salmon in the USA was fed in such a way that they had much diminished Omega-6 content versus wild-caught. However, I am not sure if practices have changed since I first looked into it, which was in the later 2000s. It is harder to track down suppliers to verify in the USA because of the supermarket phenomenon here.
Yep, plus they are talking about INCREASING short term debt issuance versus going back to QE. They have to because of the deficits. But this can create feedback and we’ll have the situation of both government spending and bondholder cash contributing to the inflationary dynamic. So for some time to come, the trend will be inflationary, even as the Fed balance sheet winds down. Though, if you look at their balance sheet, it can only go down so far, since Treasury’s bank account is at the Fed and I don’t see that decreasing soon either.