NEW YORK (AP) — Most business economists think the U.S. economy could avoid a recession next year, even if the job market ends up weakening under the weight of high interest rates, according to a survey released Monday.
Only 24% of economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics said they see a recession in 2024 as more likely than not. The 38 surveyed economists come from such organizations as Morgan Stanley, the University of Arkansas and Nationwide.
Such predictions imply the belief that the Federal Reserve can pull off the delicate balancing act of slowing the economy just enough through high interest rates to get inflation under control, without snuffing out its growth completely.
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High rates work to slow inflation by making borrowing more expensive and hurting prices for stocks and other investments. The combination typically slows spending and starves inflation of its fuel. So far, the job market has remained remarkably solid despite high interest rates, and the unemployment rate sat at a low 3.9% in October.
Every economists was predicting recession a few months back. They have an accuracy rate less than horoscopes
Does this mean rent will get easier to pay, or am I still boned?
Well, according to the article:
Of course, economists are only expecting price increases to slow, not to reverse, which is what it would take for prices for groceries, haircuts and other things to return to where they were before inflation took off during 2021.
Can’t wait to be told “actually sweetie Biden fixed inflation” even though nothing actually got better. It just stopped getting worse as fast.
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Normal people don’t care about technical financial instruments. We care about how far our paychecks go, and they do not go as far as they did before the pandemic. Until they do, no one is going to believe inflation has been fixed. Get it?
No facts, just vibes!
The fact is that paychecks do not go as far as they did before. That’s not a vibe, that’s the difference between making or missing bills.
You’re ignoring the facts that matter to score gotcha points. This is only going to piss people off even more than they already are lol
When discussing actual economic phenomena like inflation and recessions, yes, I think it is reasonable to actually be accurate and consistent in what we’re talking about.
Inflation is one problem. Wages not matching the cost of living is another, though related, problem. Saying that inflation has largely returned to normal is true, regardless of whatever else might also be true. Someone saying that is not saying that all economic woes have been fixed and that no one has any right to complain about anything.
I’m guessing you’re implying that Biden is saying that consumers need to stop whining because inflation has normalized. That would be pretty annoying, but he’s not actually said that. In fact, he just recently gave a speech blaming corporations:
Any corporation that has not brought their prices back down, even as inflation has come down, even as the supply chains have been rebuilt, it’s time to stop the price gouging.
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/27/white-house-supply-chain-bidenomics-wins.html
He’s also launched several initiatives aiming to make supply chains more robust and thus prevent future shocks from impacting prices so severely.
How would you describe ‘fixed’ inflation?
Price decreases would be deflation, but fixing inflation is literally something like stopping/slowing the rate of increase.
Normal people only really care about their own purchasing power. We care about our wages relative to the price of necessities and luxuries. Until paychecks go as far as they used to before the pandemic, normal people won’t consider the problem fixed.
