“Debate performances can be overcome,” Allan Lichtman said. “At the first sign of adversity the spineless Democrats want to throw under the bus, their own incumbent president.”
The only individual characteristic that matters is incumbency.
Most other factors mostly do not depend on the individual who is running. For example, recession, military victories/losses, results of midterm elections, significant third party challenger, etc. The party can run anyone and it would not affect those points.
However, I overlooked another individual characteristic: there is an extra point if the incumbent is a victorious military leader or has significant appeal to members of the opposing party. The only person to get that point in this century was Obama, and only in 2008.
Since then, his signature legislation has failed to pass as intended, he’s broken a strike, he’s supported a genocide, he’s moved to the right on immigration, and he’s claimed to have defeated Medicare. He’s alienated his base and demonstrated that people who were fretting about his age might have been on to something after all.
He beat Trump in a nail-biting squeaker of a contest in 2020, and centrists have been pretending he’s invincible ever since.
I’ve never met a single person who thinks any of them could actually get the popular or electoral vote, at this point replacing Biden with another Democrat would be far more likely.
About 25 to 50 percent, depending on which Polling Aggregate source you’re using for Biden currently. Which would presumably improve with another candidate.
Meanwhile, RFK Jr., the highest polling of the third party candidates, has less than 1% chance of winning enough electoral votes.
However, my original point wasn’t that a Biden replacement would do better than RFK or a third party in the general (though they certainly would), but that if you dislike Biden, him being replaced is more likely than a third party candidate ever winning.
Before the debate, I wasn’t sure who’d win: Biden or Trump.
Even Allen Lichtman was unsure.
After the debate, I figure Biden will lose.
I’m not saying it’s an absolute certainty—we have 4 months and many things could happen. If someone offered to bet me their $500 that Trump will win to my $100 on Biden winning, I’d take it.
If Biden is replaced, I think he’d be more likely to lose.
If he was elected, Biden needn’t serve all 4 years: he could resign a few months later, make Harris President, and AOC, Sanders, Newsom, whatever, as VP.
As I think Biden will lose, one might want to vote their hearts.
If 2.5 million Californians who voted for Biden instead voted for RJK Jr, Stein, and West in 2024, Biden (or his replacement) would still probably win all 55 Electoral College votes of that state.
If the 5 million Texans who voted for Biden, also, instead voted RJK Jr, Stein, and West in 2024, Biden would lose no more Electoral College votes.
The incumbent lost in 2020. There may be other factors.
The only individual characteristic that matters is incumbency.
Most other factors mostly do not depend on the individual who is running. For example, recession, military victories/losses, results of midterm elections, significant third party challenger, etc. The party can run anyone and it would not affect those points.
However, I overlooked another individual characteristic: there is an extra point if the incumbent is a victorious military leader or has significant appeal to members of the opposing party. The only person to get that point in this century was Obama, and only in 2008.
The only one to win the Democratic primaries, at least.
This system is only meant to predict the general election. It ignores any primary candidates who were not nominated.
Seems to me that the model has some blind spots.
It does what it means to do.
Until it doesn’t.
Democrats used to trust polls, too. Now they only trust them if they confirm existing biases.
The other factor is that the incumbent lost in 2020, to the 2024 incumbent.
Like wtf. People saying he can’t do it. He already did it once.
Since then, his signature legislation has failed to pass as intended, he’s broken a strike, he’s supported a genocide, he’s moved to the right on immigration, and he’s claimed to have defeated Medicare. He’s alienated his base and demonstrated that people who were fretting about his age might have been on to something after all.
He beat Trump in a nail-biting squeaker of a contest in 2020, and centrists have been pretending he’s invincible ever since.
Oh boohoo, my team didn’t win everything it wanted so I’m going to take my ball and go home.
Still by far the most progressive president in my lifetime.
Some might want to play ball with West, Stein, or JFK Jr.
I’ve never met a single person who thinks any of them could actually get the popular or electoral vote, at this point replacing Biden with another Democrat would be far more likely.
How likely is Biden, or his possible replacement, to be elected?
About 25 to 50 percent, depending on which Polling Aggregate source you’re using for Biden currently. Which would presumably improve with another candidate.
25% From the economist
40% From The Hill
50% From 538
Meanwhile, RFK Jr., the highest polling of the third party candidates, has less than 1% chance of winning enough electoral votes.
However, my original point wasn’t that a Biden replacement would do better than RFK or a third party in the general (though they certainly would), but that if you dislike Biden, him being replaced is more likely than a third party candidate ever winning.
Before the debate, I wasn’t sure who’d win: Biden or Trump.
Even Allen Lichtman was unsure.
After the debate, I figure Biden will lose.
I’m not saying it’s an absolute certainty—we have 4 months and many things could happen. If someone offered to bet me their $500 that Trump will win to my $100 on Biden winning, I’d take it.
If Biden is replaced, I think he’d be more likely to lose.
If he was elected, Biden needn’t serve all 4 years: he could resign a few months later, make Harris President, and AOC, Sanders, Newsom, whatever, as VP.
As I think Biden will lose, one might want to vote their hearts.
Keep in mind, it might be dependent on states.
wp:2020 United States presidential election#Results by state
If 2.5 million Californians who voted for Biden instead voted for RJK Jr, Stein, and West in 2024, Biden (or his replacement) would still probably win all 55 Electoral College votes of that state.
If the 5 million Texans who voted for Biden, also, instead voted RJK Jr, Stein, and West in 2024, Biden would lose no more Electoral College votes.
Your team didn’t? Did Biden not move far enough to the right for you?
I see. He really isn’t far enough to the right for you. Well you should vote for him anyway. No matter who and all that.
There’s also the 100% tariff on EVs that he supports.