Single mandate voting districts produce very unpredictable results when there’s a tie this close. Add few more percent to anyone and things can flip immediately. You might not even need to because polling has become increasingly unreliable when it comes to far right. Some say this is Russian influence but I’m worried that we are simply out of touch with reality.
Right, but I’m just trying to get a feel for how big UKIP support is at the moment - but this sounds like it’s at the level of either Labour or the Conservatives (and presumably Labour, which I think is still far larger than the Convervatives?), right?
Single mandate voting districts produce very unpredictable results when there’s a tie this close. Add few more percent to anyone and things can flip immediately. You might not even need to because polling has become increasingly unreliable when it comes to far right. Some say this is Russian influence but I’m worried that we are simply out of touch with reality.
Right, but I’m just trying to get a feel for how big UKIP support is at the moment - but this sounds like it’s at the level of either Labour or the Conservatives (and presumably Labour, which I think is still far larger than the Convervatives?), right?
Correct. It’s pretty alarming (Reform is mostly ex-UKIP people):
https://bsky.app/profile/europeelects.bsky.social/post/3ljvdnhsfnk2d
https://bsky.app/profile/europeelects.bsky.social/post/3ljnuuefi2y2k
https://bsky.app/profile/europeelects.bsky.social/post/3ljlmhqdjnh2y
And brought the receipts :) Thanks! And ah yes, Reform is the current name, thanks.