• FiniteBanjo@lemmy.today
    link
    fedilink
    arrow-up
    12
    ·
    5 months ago

    I wish this was cause for hope, but polls are still showing Trump neck and neck usually with a 2% lead over Biden. It’s really going to come down to at least two, probably three, swing states. Given that some of them allow the EC vote to be split, there is even a possibility of a Tie.

    • Leate_Wonceslace@lemmy.dbzer0.com
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      14
      ·
      5 months ago

      The last couple of elections have shown the polls to be unreliable with a distinct bias favoring Republicans in appearance. Last I heard the popular theory was boomers are more likely to answer random calls and have time for a bunch of questions.

      • SulaymanF@lemmy.world
        link
        fedilink
        arrow-up
        5
        ·
        5 months ago

        No. The polls do swing about 4% but it’s in a random direction in every election no matter what.

        Almost no polls use landline random digit dialing exclusively anymore. Some call cell phones, some do online surveys or in person surveys, and some do focus groups.

        • Leate_Wonceslace@lemmy.dbzer0.com
          link
          fedilink
          English
          arrow-up
          2
          ·
          5 months ago

          Almost no polls use landline […] Some call cell phones

          Yes; that’s entirely consistent with what I said. I wasn’t even considering that some polls might be calling landlines when I made my comment.

    • HANN@sh.itjust.works
      link
      fedilink
      arrow-up
      7
      ·
      5 months ago

      Whatever happens will happen. We don’t have control over the outcome only our efforts. Do what you can now to fight for what you believe. Stressing over polls doesn’t help.

        • HANN@sh.itjust.works
          link
          fedilink
          arrow-up
          4
          ·
          5 months ago

          Sure, about the candidates and their stances. All the candidates manipulate the polls to make it look like their ahead and they are just used to pressure people to vote for one of the major parties. Vote for who you want in office. And if you are inclined then try to sway others. But this bandwagon appeal isn’t the way.

            • HANN@sh.itjust.works
              link
              fedilink
              arrow-up
              5
              ·
              5 months ago

              There is no need for personal attacks. If you are implying I subscribe to conspiracy theories then you are not correct.

              • FiniteBanjo@lemmy.today
                link
                fedilink
                arrow-up
                2
                ·
                5 months ago

                No no, not conspiracy theories, just that the candidates respectively each own the media as a whole and that all polls are made up numbers.

    • ashok36@lemmy.world
      link
      fedilink
      arrow-up
      2
      ·
      5 months ago

      If trump internal polling showed the same lead, there’s no way he would show up to try to eat away a slice of the libertarians puny 2-3% of the vote.

      I think the numbers look way worse for Trump than national pollsters show and I think their polling indicates Trump loses in a landslide if he’s convicted in any of his cases.

      • paddirn@lemmy.world
        link
        fedilink
        English
        arrow-up
        1
        ·
        5 months ago

        That it should require a conviction is still batshit insane. That’s still way too damning of a good portion of the American public.

      • FiniteBanjo@lemmy.today
        link
        fedilink
        arrow-up
        1
        ·
        edit-2
        5 months ago

        TBF, A or B Polling won’t show any votes for C, but with how third party is more popular than in the past for both major parties this year in the wake of the Gaza Genocide it could negatively impact either candidate. That doesn’t mean the polling is meaningless.

        Trump is polling with a lead even as closing arguments are heard in his hush money trial today, and he has suspended his insurrection classified documents criminal trial indefinitely with help from a Judge Cannon that he appointed during his term.

        We don’t have to like it but we have to accept the facts here, Trump is popular and that threatens the future of US Democracy and NATO.

        EDIT: His insurrection trials are held up over some other BS.

        • ashok36@lemmy.world
          link
          fedilink
          arrow-up
          2
          ·
          5 months ago

          Slight correction: the insurrection case is held up by the Supreme Court sitting on their hands. The classified document case is held up by Cannon.

          • FiniteBanjo@lemmy.today
            link
            fedilink
            arrow-up
            1
            ·
            5 months ago

            No, it had a date set for May 20th and Judge Cannon postponed it with no new date set. She made the decision on May 7th, less than 2 weeks before the trial.

            Trump’s criminal insurrection trial would have already started if Cannon didn’t postpone it.

            • ashok36@lemmy.world
              link
              fedilink
              arrow-up
              1
              ·
              5 months ago

              No, the insurrection trial is held up by the scotus. It always would have been, with or without Cannon.