I know which of these is more important. Do you? Too many people seem to get their takes from Ryan Grim.
I’m pretty sure Israel is going to launch all of its nukes when it falls and everything after that is impossible to predict.
Not if it becomes unviable for the US to support it. The US could be the one denuclearizing it. It is currently quite viable for the US to support its goals in MENA and Latam, at the cost of long-term goals, so it will prop up Israel through any amount of damage. They still hold Palestine hostage against Iran and Hezbollah. There is unfortunately much more juice that can be squeezed out of Israel, neocolonially. With Africa we are just getting started I think. Long-term it’s a stupid pivot, but many people will die
I don’t know that the US would even care to denuclearize Israel if we got to the point where the US could no longer support it. At that point I think the US would retreat fully into the Western hemisphere, leaving Israel on its own to nuke the US’s rivals.
I don’t see why that would be in the best interest of the US even in the case it had to back down from unlimited military commitment. I mean the goal is keep the gulf states in line and keep the other states in pieces
I remember people were very confident that nukes would act as this kind of silver bullet and prevent the Ukraine conflict yet here we are over 3 years later and there have been NATO mercs on Russian territory without nukes flying. It’s just too early to convey this kind of immunity on Israel in thought experiments abt the Samson option
The only way the US would back down from unlimited military commitment is if it reached the conclusion that it is impossible to keep the gulf states in line, and so it was being forced to pull out. At that point, why wouldn’t it allow Israel to use its nukes?
Ukraine is a different situation because Russians are indigenous to the land. They don’t have anywhere else to go. If Russia used its nukes, then what? They all die. Contrast this with Israelis that are targeting nations without nukes that can’t reliably strike back if they are hit with nukes, and can just leave the region and leave everyone behind to die in the fallout. Israel’s nature as a settler-colony changes the material base for nuclear warfare, because they don’t have to care about maintaining the integrity of the land. If they use nukes then none of their neighbors can stop them and they’ll theoretically be able to just leave the irradiated region behind.
If the US can’t keep the Gulf or North Africa or West Asia in line, it’d rather they all die.
Well that’s a fun (by which I mean the worst possible thing to imagine) hypothetical and much more interesting than being literally asked on a supposedly Marxist website “why would the US support Israel past the initial stage of colonization there’s no reason therefore it is all mossad blackmail” which was more my focus w OP. If there is a way out of this nuclear scenario it lies in cutting off the economic base of the Israeli occupation that being US & Europe etc.
I mean what are you trying to tell me that there is just no way out of this other than nuking Israel and anything else is irresponsible? That’s where your train of thought is taking me tbqhbbqf
Not all Israelis are settlers, some of them are actually indigenous to the land. For those Israelis, their material interests are aligned against ever using the Sampson Option and if they were in charge it would change the entire political equation from ever using nukes. What gives me hope is that we have seen 145,000+ Israelis leave the region in the past few years. Perhaps, through low level economic pressure, it would be possible to slowly drain Israeli society of everyone that would choose to abandon the land until the people with no other land become the dominant political force.
It’s a tough needle to thread, though.
I highly doubt USA can “control” Gulf states, when push comes to shove.
Sure they can! It’s not like they have an independent military. Tense situation though, for obvious reasons (Ansar Allah shitposters dropping pics of SA engulfed in oilfield smoke)
Maybe I should double back on this actually since people never really got a full explanation for what China did with SA and Iran, its pressure on the petrodollar system
Im interested in your view.
I would believe Isn’treal is nuclear-armed with endorsement from the U.S because it becomes a satellite with “plausible deniability” right along the axis of other major powers. Guarantees a pretty strong deterrence to the entity’s neighbors as well.
This whole discussion feels kind of distant from the reality of Israeli settlers losing the will to live after like two apartment buildings’ windows broke even when they got to massacre thousands of Iranian civilians to soothe themselves. The end is in sight. I mean, people treated the Palestinian resistance as a lost cause for two years.
I think it’s wise to never underestimate the will of fascists. Berlin fought till the last child. The continued existence of the state and their recent experiences will only harden and embolden their genocidal rhetoric passed down generation to generation, thus further entrenching their will. The end isn’t in sight as long as the United States is willing to bank-roll and prop them up.
As for having nuclear weapons, I don’t see how distant it is that the United States would have a nuclear-armed vassal. Nuclear weapons were deployed in Turkey near the Soviet border leading up to the Cuban missile crisis.
Yes and plenty of them fled to the US etc too and were a plague on Latin America. Same would happen with the IDF. Same will happen with the Azov guys (alrdy has a bit in Syria).
In the broader context of the US downsizing its worldwide ambitions to smaller goals like establishing Israel, El Salvador, Ecuador, Somalia, the end is in sight within a lifetime. I’m not saying anything will be easy. The overarching point is that Israel cannot operate independently of US and European support without becoming a fundamentally different kind of state. There is no alternative to NATO with global military logistics and financial power, based in all of these entangled geopolitical interests. Some countries have more normal hobbies than that, and knowing none of them have a chance to reestablish that system makes mutual development the only path which makes sense. You can try to be like Modi or Erdogan but man is it fucking embarrassing. The old subimperialists will probably be the smaller antagonists of the Long Chinese Millenium for sure. I just think we are creaking along towards Chinese space station future, they’re not going to nuke Gaza, people should get ready to win IMO
It is everyone’s responsibility to win as hard as possible. Every iota of extra winning multiplies into thousands of lifetimes worth of improvements for others. We are basically primordial bugs who don’t know their travails are delaying the development of the squirrel which has a lot more fun stuff going on, dreaming about nuts, acquiring and losing nuts. The preoccupation with nuts delaying the ultimate activity of being on computer. Who knows what awaits us
The overarching point is that Israel cannot operate independently of US and European support without becoming a fundamentally different kind of state.
Agreed.
You can try to be like Modi or Erdogan
This is the most cursed option, so most likely to happen! /s
they’re not going to nuke Gaza
Oh no no, I was never implying that. I would feel like they would use it only if they were in a survival scenario against Iran. That’s pretty much what I meant, as long as they exist they will be used to pursue the goals of the United States. Despite the downsizing, the U.S still needs to retain spheres of influence and the Middle East is a gate to Africa, Europe, Russia and Asia. I agree with the Chinese century in space as well. When The Entity does collapse though, it won’t be pretty. Nukes may be a part of that.
Sorry for the unclear hyperbole, considering turning the entire place into a firestorm was entirely possible if unfeasible, so there is no reason to read it as hyperbole. I understood what you + others meant about nuking the region in the end.
This. It’s not a “puppet, master” or “master, servant” relationship imo. It’s a suicide pact but with one person being excessively more psychotic then the other. Israel will just launch it’s nukes and the US will follow suit as the rest of the world retaliates.
I think they already started doing this a while ago. Isn’t that what kurdistan and east turkstan are?
IMHO:
“When Israel falls” it will launch all of its nukes and end the world’s because the US will follow it to the death. I do not see it as a “master, servant” relationship here. It’s more like a suicide pact. The US is so heavily invested in Isn’treal it will hollow itself out completely in order to keep it alive. Israel will start slaughtering it’s own if they try to leave. There is no scenario in which the US abandons Isn’treal without causing an even greater mass human death scenario then what’s already been done.The way I see it, if things get so bad that the US WOULD abandon Isn’treal, it’s to the point where they are so doomed they would rather end the world then take the final loss. The only hope is that China and Russia develop the means by that point to counter enough of the Western nuclear arsenal to protect enough of their civilization to survive it.
I’m going to find John Mearsheimer and cook him into a stew I have had enough of this
